Devin AI Software Engineer | End of Software Jobs?

codebasics
16 Mar 202410:01

TLDRThe video discusses the impact of DAV AI on software engineering jobs. It highlights that while AI like DAV can perform basic tasks similar to System 1 thinking engineers (SDE 1.0), it is currently incapable of the System 2 thinking required by more advanced engineers (SDE 2.0). The speaker predicts that in 2 to 5 years, many SDE 1.0 jobs may be replaced by AI, but SDE 2.0 roles will persist, requiring human insight and complex problem-solving. The video concludes with advice for professionals to stay informed, focus on core skills, and consider careers less susceptible to automation.

Takeaways

  • 🤖 DAV AI is an AI software engineer that can perform tasks similar to human engineers, causing initial concern for the speaker's software services company.
  • 🔍 The speaker conducted research and shares thoughts on whether AI will replace software engineering jobs, based on DAV AI's demonstration videos.
  • 🎥 Demos by AI companies like DAV AI might be cherry-picked or simplified tasks, not representative of the complexity AI can handle.
  • 🏆 The concept of System 1 and System 2 thinking is introduced, with AI currently only capable of System 1 thinking (fast and intuitive).
  • 🚀 The speaker suggests that AI is evolving and might reach System 2 thinking (slow and critical) in the future, but it has not yet achieved this level.
  • 🔧 Software Engineers (SDEs) are categorized into SDE 1.0 and SDE 2.0, with the former focusing on directed tasks and the latter on the entire product cycle.
  • 🏢 SDE 1.0 jobs are more likely to be replaced by AI in the short to medium term, while SDE 2.0 jobs require a deeper understanding and are safer from automation.
  • 📈 The speaker predicts that in 2 to 5 years, most SDE 1.0 jobs will be replaced by AI, but SDE 2.0 jobs will continue to exist.
  • 🌐 Government intervention might lead to programs ensuring human involvement in technology, such as a human AI engineer for every four AI engineers.
  • 🛠️ The speaker advises staying calm, staying informed about AI advancements, focusing on core skills like communication, and considering careers requiring physical work if uncertain about AI's impact.
  • 🔮 The future of AI and technology is hard to predict, but significant changes are coming, and adapting to these changes will be crucial.

Q & A

  • What is the main concern of the speaker regarding DAV AI and software engineering jobs?

    -The speaker is concerned that DAV AI, as an AI software engineer, might replace human software engineers, particularly those performing tasks similar to system one thinking.

  • How does the speaker view the demo videos of DAV AI?

    -The speaker finds the demo videos of DAV AI stunning but suspects that they might be cherry-picked to showcase only the successful tasks, and not indicative of the AI's overall capabilities.

  • What are system one and system two thinking, as introduced by Nobel Prize winner Daniel Kahneman?

    -System one thinking is fast and intuitive, while system two thinking is slow and involves critical thinking and decision-making after considering various factors.

  • What is the speaker's opinion on the current capabilities of AI in terms of system two thinking?

    -The speaker believes that current AI models, like DAV AI, are not capable of system two thinking and are limited to system one thinking. However, there is ongoing research to enhance AI's capabilities in this area.

  • How does the speaker differentiate between SD 1.0 and SD 2.0 software engineers?

    -SD 1.0 software engineers perform tasks that involve system one thinking, following clear instructions, while SD 2.0 engineers are involved in the entire product cycle, requiring system two thinking, domain understanding, and complex problem-solving.

  • In the speaker's view, what will be the fate of SD 1.0 jobs in the next 2 to 5 years?

    -The speaker predicts that majority of SD 1.0 jobs will be replaced by AI within 2 to 5 years, although some may persist in conservative companies that are hesitant to adopt AI.

  • What is the speaker's long-term prediction for SD 2.0 jobs?

    -The speaker believes that SD 2.0 jobs, which require system two thinking, will continue to exist in the long term, even as AI technology evolves.

  • What are the speaker's recommendations for individuals worried about AI replacing their jobs?

    -The speaker advises staying calm, staying informed about AI developments, focusing on core skills like communication and business understanding, and considering careers that require physical work if they are uncomfortable with the uncertainty of AI's impact.

  • Why does the speaker think that physical work jobs like doctor, nurse, carpenter, or electrician might be safer from AI and robotics?

    -The speaker argues that technological breakthroughs in robotics are not as advanced as AI, and there will be significant government regulations that will slow down the adoption of robots in these fields.

  • What is the speaker's overall conclusion about the impact of AI on software engineering jobs?

    -The speaker concludes that while AI will replace many SD 1.0 jobs, SD 2.0 jobs requiring system two thinking will continue to exist. The future beyond 5 years is uncertain, but significant changes are coming.

  • How does the speaker suggest staying informed about AI and its impact on jobs?

    -The speaker suggests not relying solely on marketing materials or kneejerk reactions from media, but instead seeking out well-researched predictions and analyses to understand the future landscape of AI and its effects on various professions.

Outlines

00:00

🤖 Concerns and Research on DAV AI's Impact on Software Engineering Jobs

The speaker, a software services company owner, expresses initial concern about the emergence of DAV AI and its potential to replace human software engineers. Despite having an AI department within their company, the speaker conducts research to understand the capabilities of DAV AI, as demonstrated in its task-handling and problem-solving videos. The speaker critiques these demos as potentially cherry-picked and highlights the difference between System 1 (intuitive) and System 2 (critical) thinking, suggesting that current AI models, including DAV AI, are limited to System 1 thinking. The speaker also discusses the potential future evolution of AI and its implications for software engineers categorized as SD 1.0 (task-oriented) and SD 2.0 (involved in the entire product cycle), predicting that in 2 to 5 years, most SD 1.0 jobs may be replaced by AI.

05:01

🚀 Future of Software Engineering Jobs and Strategies for Adaptation

The speaker delves into the future of software engineering jobs, distinguishing between SD 1.0 and SD 2.0 engineers. SD 1.0, who follow directed tasks, may face replacement by AI, while SD 2.0, involved in complex computational thinking and product design, are less likely to be replaced. The speaker also addresses the potential long-term changes and the role of government intervention in creating programs like 'human in technology.' They conclude with three tips for individuals: staying calm and informed, focusing on core skills like communication and business understanding, and considering careers requiring physical work if uncomfortable with the uncertainty of AI's impact on their current field.

Mindmap

Keywords

💡DAV AI

DAV AI refers to an artificial intelligence software engineer that is designed to perform tasks similar to those of a human software engineer. In the context of the video, DAV AI is showcased as a tool that can take on tasks, write code, and even debug and deploy applications, raising concerns about the potential replacement of human software engineering jobs.

💡System 1 and System 2 Thinking

System 1 and System 2 thinking are concepts introduced by Nobel Prize winner Daniel Kahneman in his book 'Thinking, Fast and Slow.' System 1 thinking is fast, intuitive, and operates automatically, while System 2 thinking is slower, more deliberative, and requires effortful attention. In the video, the speaker uses these concepts to differentiate between tasks that AI can currently handle (System 1) and the more complex, strategic tasks that require human intervention (System 2).

💡Software Development Engineers (SDEs)

Software Development Engineers, or SDEs, are professionals who apply software engineering principles to the design, development, testing, and maintenance of software systems. In the video, the speaker categorizes SDEs into two versions: SDE 1.0 and SDE 2.0, with the former being more at risk of replacement by AI due to their focus on routine tasks, while the latter are involved in the entire product lifecycle and require more complex problem-solving skills.

💡AI Department

An AI Department within a company is a specialized unit dedicated to researching, developing, and implementing artificial intelligence technologies and solutions for the organization. In the context of the video, the speaker's company has an AI Department that works on industrial AI projects, which positions the company to better understand and adapt to the emerging capabilities of AI like DAV AI.

💡Cherry Picking

Cherry picking is the practice of selectively presenting only the most favorable or successful examples while omitting less successful ones. In the context of the video, the speaker suggests that the DAV AI demonstrations might be cherry-picked to showcase the AI's capabilities in the best light, potentially not representing the full range of its abilities or limitations.

💡GitHub

GitHub is a web-based hosting service for version control and collaboration that is used by developers to store, manage, and collaborate on code. In the video, the speaker references a DAV AI demo where the AI is shown to implement a feature request on a GitHub repository, highlighting the AI's ability to interact with coding platforms and follow instructions from readme files.

💡Upwork

Upwork is a global freelancing platform that connects businesses and independent professionals for project-based work. In the video, the speaker discusses a DAV AI demo where the AI works on a task from Upwork, suggesting that AI could potentially take on freelance software development jobs that typically require human engineers.

💡Multi-Agent AI System

A multi-agent AI system refers to a computational model in which multiple autonomous agents interact with each other and their environment to achieve a common goal. In the context of the video, the speaker speculates that DAV AI might be one such system, similar to platforms like Crew AI and Microsoft Autogen, which attempt to simulate higher-order thinking by combining System 1 AI with specific techniques.

💡Domain Understanding

Domain understanding refers to the knowledge and comprehension of a specific subject area or field. In the video, the speaker emphasizes the importance of domain understanding for software engineers, especially when interacting with clients and gaining insights into business requirements, which is a skill that AI currently lacks.

💡Complex Computational Thinking

Complex computational thinking involves the ability to understand and solve intricate problems related to system design, scalability, and performance. In the video, the speaker argues that this type of thinking, which requires System 2 thinking, is beyond the current capabilities of AI and is a key differentiator between human software engineers and AI.

💡Career Development

Career development refers to the process of improving one's professional skills and qualifications to advance in their career. In the video, the speaker provides tips for individuals to adapt to the changing job landscape in the face of AI advancements, such as staying informed about AI developments, focusing on core skills like communication, and considering careers that require physical work.

Highlights

The owner of a software services company shares insights on whether DAV AI will replace software engineering jobs.

The company has an AI department working on industrial AI projects.

DAV AI can be given tasks like a manager assigns to a software engineer, and it proceeds to plan, code, and debug much like a human.

Demo videos of DAV AI show it performing basic tasks on Upwork and implementing feature requests on GitHub.

The presenter expresses skepticism about the demos, suggesting they may be cherry-picked or simplified tasks.

The concept of System 1 and System 2 thinking is introduced, with the idea that current AI models like DAV are capable of System 1 thinking but not System 2.

System 1 thinking is fast and intuitive, while System 2 requires slow, deliberate thought and consideration of various factors.

LLMs (like DAV AI) are currently limited to System 1 thinking, but research is ongoing to enable them to perform System 2 thinking.

Platforms like Crew AI and Microsoft Autogen attempt to simulate System 2 thinking using techniques combined with System 1 thinking AI.

Software Engineers (SD 1.0) who perform routine, directed tasks are at risk of being replaced by AI like DAV.

SD 2.0 engineers, who are involved in the entire product cycle from business requirements to implementation, are less likely to be replaced in the near future.

The presenter predicts that in 2 to 5 years, most SD 1.0 jobs will be replaced by AI, but SD 2.0 jobs will continue to exist.

Government intervention may lead to programs ensuring a mix of human and AI engineers in the workforce.

The long-term future beyond 5 years is uncertain due to the rapid evolution of AI and technology.

The presenter advises staying calm, staying informed, focusing on core skills, and considering careers requiring physical work if uncomfortable with AI uncertainty.

AI cannot currently perform complex computational thinking required for tasks like system scale and throughput analysis.

The technological breakthrough in robotics is not as advanced as AI, meaning physical jobs like doctors, nurses, carpenters, and electricians may be safer from automation.

Government regulations will likely slow the adoption of autonomous robots in sensitive fields like healthcare and transportation.

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