Google Delays ChatGPT Killer Gemini: What's Happening at Google?

Table of Contents

• Google's Delayed Response to ChatGPT
• Startups Gaining Ground on Google
• Threats to Google's Core Business Model
• What's Next for Google?
• Conclusion

Google's Delayed Response to ChatGPT Threatens Search and Ad Revenue

Google was recently caught off guard by the explosive growth of AI chatbots like ChatGPT. Despite scrambling to develop its own ChatGPT competitor called Bard, Google has struggled to keep pace with nimble startups. This exposes vulnerabilities in Google's core search and advertising business, which makes up over 50% of its annual revenue.

Bard's failed debut demonstrated Google's surprising lack of readiness. In the much-hyped live demo, Bard provided inaccurate information easily found on NASA's website. This led to a $100 billion hit to Alphabet's market cap, highlighting the significant stakes. Meanwhile, startups like Anthropic have rapidly iterated their chatbots with impressive upgrades. And despite having more resources and AI talent than any startup, Google remains far behind in the AI race it usually dominates.

Bard's Failed Debut

In Bard's heavily promoted debut, it provided inaccurate information about the James Webb Space Telescope that was easily found on NASA's website. This embarrassing gaffe during a live demo led to Alphabet losing $100 billion in market cap overnight. It exposed Google's lack of preparation despite having over 200,000 employees compared to ChatGPT developer OpenAI's few hundred. Rather than a one-time stumble, Bard's failure reflects more systematic issues. Over a year after ChatGPT's launch, Bard still lags far behind despite Google directing massive resources into catching up. Meanwhile, startups like Anthropic have rapidly iterated their chatbots with impressive accuracy and capability upgrades.

Slow Progress on Gemini

Google recently announced it is delaying the launch of Gemini, its ChatGPT killer, until later in 2023. This is surprising given Google's vast resources and the threat posed by AI chatbots to its core search advertising business. Startups like Anthropic shouldn't be able to compete with the tech giant, yet they have quickly gained ground with regular feature upgrades. For instance, Anthropic has significantly upgraded Claude twice in the last three weeks. CEO Dario Amodei claims Claude is now second only to ChatGPT. Tiny startups increasingly outpacing mighty Google indicates deeper issues in its capacity to lead cutting-edge AI development.

Startups Gaining Ground on Industry Leader

Given Google's vast resources and talent, it's concerning that startups like Anthropic and You.com are able to effectively compete in AI development. Anthropic has made impressive strides with its chatbot Claude, which its CEO now claims is second only to ChatGPT in accuracy and capability. You.com's CEO also touts his chatbot's unique "snarkiness."

These fast-following startups are steadily accruing billions in valuation while chipping away at the use cases and buzz that Google typically dominates. Google risks falling increasingly behind while rivals seize mindshare. This complacency exposes the weakening competitive intensity within Google that once powered its nonstop innovation.

Threats to Google's Core Business Model

ChatGPT poses an existential threat to Google's cash cow search advertising business, which makes up over 50% of its annual revenue. As AI chatbots handle more natural language search queries, they undermine Google's search advertising dominance. People are already beginning to use chatbots over Google for search, reflecting the coming disruption.

In addition, advanced chatbots like Claude and You.com's search engine provide alarmingly good results without needing to show ads. As this use case grows, Google will lose its tight grip on the critical searcher-advertiser marketplace that fuels its $160+ billion advertising empire.

The Future of Search and Ads

Chatbots threaten to entirely upend Google's search advertising dominance. People are already finding chatbots provide more useful, exact search results without needing to trawl through multiple links. Tech journalist Conor Dewey relates he rarely uses Google search anymore as AI chatbots like Claude give him better answers. As natural language AI handles a growing proportion of searches, SEO practices will drastically change. The dominance of ads in search results will decline as chatbots provide direct, ad-free answers. This seismic shift may deeply erode the search advertising cash cow that has long buoyed Google's meteoric growth.

What's Next for Google?

While Google still largely owns critical digital workflows like search and email, its lack of urgency in AI development puts these cash cows at risk. Google likely still has the resources and talent to catch up, but the complacency and slowed competitive metabolism apparent in recent stumbles must be addressed.

There are glimmers of hope. Google teases its upcoming Gemini chatbot may still prove a formidable ChatGPT rival. However, Google must rediscover the hunger, intensity, and innovative pace of its early gritty startup days to maintain dominance as AI transforms consumer technology.

Will Gemini Be a Game Changer?

Google promises its upcoming Gemini chatbot will be a game changer in generative AI. Given Google's early lead in AI research and vast resources, Gemini may still prove a breakout ChatGPT competitor once launched later in 2023. However, Bard's high-profile failure and the surprising ascension of nimble startups have exposed vulnerabilities in Google's competitive metabolism. Rediscovering its early intense innovation and drive will be key to overcoming new AI rivals on the horizon.

Conclusion

Google faces an existential threat as AI chatbots transform consumer search behavior and expectations. Failure to keep pace with startups in deploying cutting-edge conversational AI exposes weakness in Google's once-unassailable competitive dominance.

If Google can recapture the hunger and pace of innovation that originally unseated tech giants like Microsoft, Gemini may still turbocharge Google to the front of the AI race. But with growing complacency and startups gaining ground, Google must urgently rediscover the intensity that fueled its rise.

FAQ

Q: Why does Google's delay on Gemini matter?
A: It matters because startups like OpenAI and Anthropic shouldn't be able to compete with an 800 lb gorilla like Google. The delays show issues with leadership and priority.

Q: How has search and Google's business model been threatened?
A: New natural language AI models threaten search and ads, which make up over 50% of Google's revenue.

Q: What startups are gaining ground on Google?
A: OpenAI, Anthropic, and others like Grover are rapidly developing new AI products while Google has stalled.