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Navigating the AI Revolution: Exploring AI-Proof Jobs and Durable Trades

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The AI Revolution's Impact on Jobs: Exploring AI-Proof Trades

The AI revolution, spearheaded by the release of ChatGPT on November 30th, 2022, is rapidly transforming the world of work. ChatGPT, a first-of-its-kind artificial intelligence chatbot made available to the public, has positioned itself to replace jobs in various fields such as data analysis, software engineering, legal services, teaching, accounting, and graphic design. Conservative estimates suggest that ChatGPT and other similar AI software will replace approximately 300 million jobs in the near future – a staggering figure comparable to the entire population of the United States.

In the face of this onslaught of AI-driven automation and job displacement, there is a growing interest in exploring AI-proof jobs – occupations that are less likely to be made obsolete by technological advancements. To delve into this topic, we interviewed Rory Groves, a former software engineer turned small-scale farmer, who authored the book 'Durable Trades: 61 Occupations That Have Stood the Test of Time and Technological Advances and Are Still in Demand Today.'

ChatGPT and the Advent of AI Software

In the five short months since ChatGPT's release, it has demonstrated its ability to replace jobs across various industries. Rory Groves, coming from a background in automation and artificial intelligence, shared his insights on the impact of AI on the job market. According to Groves, 'There's a stat in the book that 47% of all knowledge worker professions are expected to become replaced by computer algorithms in the next 10 to 15 years, and at the same time, we're expected to see a 30% increase in the Building Trades over the same time period.' This highlights how knowledge-based professions, such as doctors, lawyers, teachers, and computer programmers, are highly susceptible to AI and algorithmic automation.

Automation and Job Displacement

Groves emphasized that the drive towards centralization and efficiency has led to the replacement of humans with automation, and this trend is set to accelerate in the coming years. He warned, 'We're expecting a massive shift – 800 million workers around the world being displaced from the jobs they're currently employed at.' Groves also pointed out that high-paying jobs are often targeted for automation, as they provide the most significant return on investment. A lawyer he interviewed shared an anecdote about how legal disputes are now frequently outsourced to teams in India, where AI-generated legal documents and court filings are prepared overnight, rendering the services of U.S. attorneys less necessary.

AI-Proof Jobs: Exploring Durable Trades

In his book, 'Durable Trades,' Rory Groves compiled a list of 61 occupations that have stood the test of time and technological advances, remaining in demand to this day. To identify these durable trades, Groves examined professions that existed before the Industrial Revolution – a period he chose because it marked a significant shift in the way humans worked and organized societies.

By looking at occupations that have survived through revolutions, wars, inflation, pandemics, and changes in government forms, Groves sought to identify trades that are truly resilient and durable. His criteria for inclusion in the list were trades that existed before 1790 and are still practiced today.

Criteria for Durable Trades

Groves outlined his methodology for compiling the list of durable trades, emphasizing two key factors: historical stability and family-centeredness. He explained, 'I broke it up into five categories: historical stability, family-centeredness, resiliency (how quickly a profession recovers from shocks like a recession or depression), income, and ease of entry.'

To assess family-centeredness, Groves evaluated whether a profession offered opportunities for children and elderly people to work together, whether it could be home-based, and whether it left tangible assets for future generations. He then scored each trade based on 25 such questions, creating a composite score to rank the trades' durability.

Top Durable Trades and Their Common Denominators

Among the 61 durable trades identified by Groves, a clear pattern emerged: trades catering to food, fiber, and shelter – the core human needs – were the most resilient over time. Groves revealed, 'Four of the top five trades and 12 of the top 20 are all related to food, fiber, and shelter.'

The second consistent theme was family-centeredness. Groves noted, 'The family-centered trades, the ones that basically involved all ages and had a place for the whole family to work together, are also the most durable and the most resilient.' These trades prioritized the involvement of individuals across all age groups, allowing families to work together in a shared endeavor.

Leveraging AI as a Small Farmer

While AI and automation are primarily employed in large-scale industrial applications where even small efficiency gains can provide a competitive edge, Groves acknowledged that there might be opportunities for small farmers to leverage AI and robotics in a balanced way.

He suggested that small farmers could benefit from deep database mining and Big Data analysis, where multiple historical databases are merged to glean new insights. Additionally, he pointed to the potential for robotics in farming, such as GPS-controlled tractors or drone tractors that can operate autonomously throughout a growing season. However, Groves cautioned that small-scale farmers should focus on building relationships with customers – a task that robots will never be able to replicate.

Scoring Metrics for Durable Trades

To assess the durability of various trades, Groves developed a scoring system based on five categories: historical stability, family-centeredness, resiliency, income, and ease of entry. He explained, 'I broke it up into five categories so we have historical stability, family-centeredness, resiliency – which basically means how quickly does a profession recover from shocks like a recession or depression. These are always going to affect different cycles, but some professions go away and never come back. Then, income – basically, what does it pay? And then the last one is ease of entry.'

By evaluating each trade according to these categories and asking pertinent questions, such as whether a profession allows for the involvement of children and elderly, whether it can be home-based, and whether it leaves tangible assets for future generations, Groves calculated a composite score to determine the overall durability and ranking of each trade.

The Personal Aspect: Why Choose Farming?

Groves shared his personal reasons for choosing a farming lifestyle, highlighting the fulfillment and connectedness with the land that it brings to his family. He emphasized, 'There is a fulfillment in this connectedness with the land that it's just hard to explain. It kind of has its own influence on you. While we're here, we're working together as a family, and it's one of those rare places that I can do that, that we can actually put our hands together and grow things together, raise things together, take care of the land, and then enjoy the fruit of the land.'

For Groves, farming is not just about the financial aspect but also about building strong relationships with his children, who are homeschooled and involved in the farm's daily operations. He values the opportunity to disciple his children and illustrate the providence of God through the rhythms of nature and the land. Groves believes that the farming context provides a unique way to show his children's dependence on God and His provision.

Conclusion: Focusing on Your Local Community

In the face of concerns about the centralization of farmland ownership by wealthy individuals like Bill Gates, Groves emphasized the importance of focusing on one's local community and personal calling. He advised, 'If God has called you to do something important for your family and for your community, and to build those relationships, or to grow healthy food, or to just show people that there is a different way to do this, I think that if you stay focused on that, you'll be busy enough that you won't really need to worry too much about what's going on in the larger world.'

Groves encouraged individuals to be aware of broader issues but to concentrate their efforts on creating a beautiful life and family where they are. By being faithful with the resources and opportunities given to them, individuals can make a significant impact on their local communities and find protection and provision from the Lord.

FAQ

Q: How can I enter the giveaway for a copy of Durable Trades?
A: To enter the giveaway, take a picture of the screen, post it to any social media channel you have, tag @HarmonyFarmsDorpers, and let them know that you entered. One winner will be chosen to receive a copy of Durable Trades by Rory Groves.

Q: What is the end goal for Rory Groves' farm?
A: The primary goal is self-sufficiency, providing for the needs of their own family. They also aim to connect with others and educate them about family-centered economies through agrotourism and events.

Q: How can families interested in a family-centered economy connect with others?
A: Rory Groves shares their website, thegrovestead.com, as a means to connect families trying to start family-centered economies and support each other. They also host events focused on this topic.

Q: Where does mowing yards stack up in the list of 61 durable trades?
A: While not explicitly listed, mowing yards could be considered under the trade of gardening or landscaping, which are included in the list of durable trades.

Q: How did Rory Groves compile the list of 61 durable trades?
A: Rory Groves looked at professions that existed before the Industrial Revolution (around 230 years ago) and are still existing today. He used this as a test for durability, as these trades have survived revolutions, wars, inflation, pandemics, and changes in government.

Q: What are the common denominators among the 61 durable trades listed in the book?
A: The common denominators are trades catering to food, fiber, and shelter (basic human needs), as well as family-centeredness, where trades allow for involvement of all ages and the whole family to work together.

Q: How can we market or connect with other families interested in a family-centered economy?
A: Rory Groves suggests connecting through their website, thegrovestead.com, and their quarterly print newsletter. They also host events aimed at bringing people together to encourage one another in building their home economies.

Q: Should the centralization of farmland ownership by figures like Bill Gates be a concern for American small farmers?
A: While it's important to be informed and aware of larger issues, Rory Groves suggests focusing on your local community and being faithful with what you've been given, as God will provide and protect those who follow His will.

Q: How can we leverage AI as small farmers?
A: Currently, AI is mostly used for managing databases and information. For small farmers, the focus should be on building relationships with customers and providing value in ways that robots cannot, rather than competing against large commercial farmers utilizing automation.

Q: Why does Rory Groves choose farming, even if there are cheaper ways to acquire food?
A: Farming provides a fulfillment and connectedness with the land that is hard to explain. It allows Rory Groves to work together as a family, build strong relationships with his children, and disciple them by showing them the ways of God through nature and His creation.

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