세계최강인 미 해군인데, 배 만들 능력이 없다? [미 해군의 위기 특별편]

The U.S. Navy faces a collapsed shipbuilding cycle, with problems arising from the production process. Initially, the first ships were meticulously built, but subsequent ships faced issues due to a breakdown in procedures, leading to the production of flawed vessels. The situation is so severe that it threatens the Navy's operational capabilities. The Navy has submitted a report to Congress outlining plans to decommission a significant number of vessels, with 19 ships set to be retired by 2025, followed by 17 in 2026, and so on until 2029, totaling around 60 ships over five years. This includes the retirement of the Nimitz-class aircraft carrier CVN 68 in 2026 and a large number of Los Angeles-class attack submarines. The Navy is prioritizing the maintenance of aircraft carriers and nuclear submarines capable of carrying SLBMs (Submarine-Launched Ballistic Missiles), which are crucial for retaliation in the event of a nuclear war. However, the Navy is struggling with a shortage of personnel and a surplus of aging ships, which are costly to maintain and operate.

The U.S. Navy aims to maintain a fleet of around 300 manned warships by the mid-2030s and introduce approximately 150 unmanned platforms by 2045. This strategy involves phasing out older, large, and expensive vessels in favor of newer, potentially smaller and unmanned technologies. However, the Navy faces opposition from Congress, which is often reluctant to support rapid changes. The U.S. shipbuilding industry's market share has dwindled to 0.13%, with China and South Korea dominating the global market. The U.S. has historically maintained a strong naval presence alongside a robust merchant fleet, but recent decades have seen a decline in this dual capability. The Jones Act, a protectionist law from the 1920s, still influences U.S. shipbuilding policy, but the industry's focus has narrowed to a few specialized military vessels and coastal ships.

The decline in U.S. shipbuilding has had a significant impact on the Navy's ability to maintain and modernize its fleet. The Reagan administration's policies led to the removal of subsidies for commercial ships, resulting in a sharp decline in U.S. ship construction. This has left the U.S. with a limited number of shipyards capable of building and maintaining military vessels. The Navy once had a workforce of around 1,200 personnel for design and review processes, but this has been reduced to fewer than 300. This has led to issues with new ship construction, with problems arising early in the production cycle and affecting operational deployment. The U.S. currently has only seven shipyards owned by two companies that are capable of building Navy ships, a significant reduction from the shipyards active during the 1960s and 1990s.

The U.S. Navy is grappling with a backlog of maintenance and modernization work that could take up to 20 years to clear. The Navy's shipyards are limited in capacity, making it difficult to keep up with the demand for repairs, modernization, and new construction. This includes the need for regular updates and maintenance, such as the replacement of aging technology and systems. The Navy is also considering whether to continue operating its older ships or to decommission them, as the cost of maintaining outdated technology becomes increasingly burdensome. The Navy's current situation is further complicated by the rapid rise of China's naval capabilities, which are expanding at a pace that outstrips the U.S.'s ability to modernize its fleet.

China's shipbuilding capabilities are significantly outpacing those of the U.S., with Chinese shipyards producing a large number of vessels annually. China's naval expansion includes the production of advanced warships and submarines at a rate that is quickly closing the gap with the U.S. Navy. By 2025, China's fleet is expected to grow to 400 ships, and by 2035, it could reach 500. In contrast, the U.S. Navy's fleet is set to reduce to 33 ships by the mid-2030s, based on current plans. The disparity in shipbuilding capacity is a major concern for the U.S. Navy, as it struggles to maintain its global naval dominance in the face of China's rapid military modernization.

The U.S. Navy is expressing concerns about its shipbuilding capabilities and the need for innovation. The Navy has conducted war games that consistently show vulnerabilities in larger vessels, suggesting that the focus on big ships may not be as strategically effective as previously thought. There is a growing belief that smaller, unmanned, or stealthy vessels, possibly equipped with AI, could offer new tactical advantages. However, the U.S. shipbuilding industry is not keeping pace with these needs, and there is a lack of investment in new types of vessels. The Navy is also facing budgetary challenges, with funds for modernization and maintenance being cut while funds for new ship construction are increased. This has led to a situation where the Navy struggles to maintain its current fleet while also being unable to build the innovative ships it requires. There is a call for the U.S. shipbuilding industry to adapt and innovate, but it remains to be seen if this will happen.

The U.S. Navy is considering collaborating with South Korean and Japanese shipbuilders to address its maintenance, repair, and overhaul (MRO) needs. There is an ongoing discussion about leveraging the shipbuilding capabilities of these allies to support the U.S. fleet. South Korean and Japanese shipbuilders are expected to participate in a major maritime defense industry exhibition in North America, where further discussions and negotiations are anticipated. However, the U.S. Navy is primarily focused on maintaining and operating its current fleet effectively. While there is interest in revitalizing the U.S. shipbuilding industry, there are no immediate plans to entrust the construction of new, innovative ships to South Korean or Japanese shipyards. The U.S. Navy is looking for ways to modernize its domestic shipyards and is considering various options, including reopening or reactivating closed shipyards within the United States.

The U.S. Navy is in a strategic dilemma, emphasizing the need for innovative and experimental approaches to maintain its status as the world's leading naval force. However, the Navy faces challenges from political and vested interests, particularly within the U.S. shipbuilding industry. The ideal solution, as seen from the perspective of the U.S. Navy, would be for South Korea and Japan to establish new shipyards within the U.S. or to take over existing ones, thereby revitalizing the U.S. shipbuilding industry. The U.S. government would need to invest heavily, possibly $50 billion to $100 billion, to achieve this. The U.S. Navy is in urgent need of change and cannot afford to wait any longer, but the feasibility of such an investment and the ability to overcome political and vested interests remain to be seen. The speaker suggests that a strategic partnership between the U.S. and its allies, particularly in the shipbuilding industry, could be highly beneficial, but acknowledges the complexity of achieving this.