🚨 This is getting OUT OF HAND (Don't FALL for THIS)

Moneyvest
6 Mar 202422:03

TLDRThe video discusses the current market trends, focusing on the performance of major indices like NASDAQ, S&P, and Dow Jones. It highlights Jerome Powell's testimony, emphasizing the Fed's cautious approach to rate cuts due to inflation concerns. The script also addresses the fear generated by sensationalist headlines about market crashes, advising viewers to ignore such noise and focus on data-driven analysis. It provides insights into various stocks, including Amazon, Apple, Google, and Tesla, and their respective support and resistance levels, while emphasizing the importance of quality over quantity in trade ideas.

Takeaways

  • 📈 The markets are pushing higher, with NASDAQ up over half a percent and S&P just over 5100.
  • 🗣️ Jerome Powell's testimony before the financial services committee was more political than focused on monetary policy.
  • 🚫 The speaker advises ignoring sensationalist headlines predicting market crashes, as they are often unfounded and create unnecessary fear.
  • 🔍 The speaker emphasizes that no one can accurately predict market movements, and it's better to focus on the present and actual data.
  • 📊 Powell mentioned that the Federal Reserve will cut rates once there's greater confidence in inflation decline, but no timetable was committed to.
  • 📉 The job market showed a slight decline with 8.8 million job openings, slightly lower than the consensus.
  • 📌 The speaker provides technical analysis for various stocks, including Apple, Amazon, Tesla, Nvidia, AMD, PayPal, Visa, Meta, Netflix, Microsoft, and Costco.
  • 🔄 The speaker discusses the importance of quality over quantity in providing trade ideas, focusing on high win rate opportunities.
  • 📝 The speaker mentions upcoming earnings releases for companies like Costco and provides expectations for their performance.
  • 🌐 The speaker encourages viewers to subscribe to the channel and join their Discord and Patreon for more in-depth market analysis and trading ideas.

Q & A

  • What was the main topic of Jerome Powell's testimony before the financial services committee?

    -The main topic was supposed to be monetary policy, but the discussion became very political and strayed from topics like recession, inflation, interest rates, and economic growth.

  • What did Jerome Powell say about the Federal Reserve's stance on rate cuts?

    -Powell indicated that the Federal Reserve would cut rates once they have greater confidence in the decline of inflation, but he did not commit to a specific timetable.

  • How did Jerome Powell describe the current state of the US economy?

    -Powell described the US economy as strong, with growth over 3% in 2023 and a labor market that remains tight, indicating no short-term risk of a recession.

  • What is the speaker's advice regarding market predictions and potential crashes?

    -The speaker advises to ignore the noise and not focus on predictions of market crashes, as they are rarely accurate and can create unnecessary fear.

  • What is the speaker's view on the importance of long-term investing over trying to predict market crashes?

    -The speaker believes that long-term investing is more efficient and beneficial, as markets tend to recover and perform well over time, with the probability of making money over a 15-year period being over 99%.

  • What was the speaker's opinion on the job openings numbers released on the day of the video?

    -The speaker noted a slight decline in job openings to 8.8 million, which was lower than the consensus of 8.9 million, indicating a minor decrease compared to expectations.

  • Which sectors were performing well according to the speaker's analysis?

    -The sectors performing well included healthcare, industrial, real estate, utilities, basic materials, consumer goods, defense, software applications, and semiconductors.

  • What is the speaker's outlook on Bitcoin and Ether's prices?

    -The speaker mentioned that Bitcoin and Ether were trading at high levels, with Bitcoin just under 66,000 and Ether just over 3700. However, they were both considered overbought, which could lead to a pullback.

  • What is the speaker's valuation analysis for the S&P 500?

    -The speaker analyzed the S&P 500's valuation, stating that with earnings expectations for 2024 at $247, the S&P 500 is trading at a reasonable price, not undervalued or overvalued, with a forward earnings multiple of around 20 times.

  • What are the support and resistance levels for the S&P 500 mentioned in the video?

    -The support level for the S&P 500 is at 5,000, with a more immediate level at 5,450. The resistance level is not explicitly mentioned, but the speaker discusses the importance of the 5,450 level as a support.

Outlines

00:00

📈 Market Update and Jerome Powell's Testimony

The video discusses the current market situation, with a focus on Jerome Powell's testimony before the financial services committee. The speaker criticizes the political nature of the discussion, which strayed from monetary policy to fiscal and political matters. The video aims to provide a brief analysis of Powell's statements and plans to cover the next testimony. The speaker also addresses market fears stirred by sensational headlines predicting market crashes, emphasizing the unpredictability of market movements and the importance of focusing on the present rather than potential future downturns.

05:02

📉 Debunking Market Crash Predictions

The speaker addresses the fear-mongering headlines predicting a market crash, comparing them to media tactics designed to attract attention. They argue that such predictions are rarely accurate and that investors should ignore them unless supported by actual data. The video highlights the importance of not trying to time the market based on crash predictions, as historically, more money is lost attempting to predict crashes than in the crashes themselves.

10:02

💼 Federal Reserve's Stance and Market Analysis

The video provides a breakdown of Jerome Powell's statements, including his expectations for rate cuts and the current state of the US economy. Powell's testimony indicated that the Federal Reserve is waiting for greater confidence in inflation decline before cutting rates. The speaker also discusses job market data and the Fed's cautious approach to rate cuts. Additionally, the video includes an analysis of various stocks and sectors, with a focus on their performance and potential for growth or decline.

15:02

📊 S&P 500 Valuation and Support Levels

The speaker delves into the valuation of the S&P 500, discussing earnings expectations and the index's price-to-earnings ratio. They argue that the market is reasonably priced, neither undervalued nor overvalued. The video outlines key support and resistance levels for the S&P 500, as well as for individual stocks like Apple, Amazon, and Tesla, providing insights into their current market positions and potential future movements.

20:05

🚀 Cryptocurrency and Tech Stocks Update

The video concludes with an update on cryptocurrency prices, particularly Bitcoin and Ethereum, and their respective support and resistance levels. It also covers the performance of tech stocks like Nvidia, AMD, PayPal, Visa, Meta Platforms, Netflix, Google, Microsoft, and Costco, discussing their current market conditions, valuations, and potential trading opportunities.

Mindmap

Keywords

💡Market Predictions

Market predictions refer to forecasts about the future direction of financial markets, such as stock prices or economic trends. In the video, the speaker dismisses the reliability of such predictions, emphasizing that no one can accurately predict market movements, and advises viewers to focus on the present and actual data rather than fear-mongering headlines.

💡Jerome Powell

Jerome Powell is the Chairman of the Federal Reserve, the central banking system of the United States. The video discusses his testimony before the Financial Services Committee, highlighting the political nature of the discussion and the lack of focus on monetary policy. Powell's statements on inflation, interest rates, and the state of the economy are analyzed to understand their potential impact on market sentiment.

💡Inflation

Inflation is the rate at which the general level of prices for goods and services is rising, and subsequently, purchasing power is falling. In the context of the video, the speaker mentions Powell's comments on inflation, noting that while it has eased since its 40-year high in 2022, the Federal Reserve still needs greater confidence in its decline before adjusting interest rates.

💡Interest Rates

Interest rates are the cost of borrowing money and are determined by central banks like the Federal Reserve. The video touches on the expectation of interest rate cuts, which are reductions in the rates that banks charge each other for loans. This is seen as a tool to stimulate economic growth and is a topic of discussion in Powell's testimony.

💡S&P 500

The S&P 500 is a stock market index that measures the stock performance of 500 large companies listed on the stock exchange in the United States. It is often used as a proxy for the overall U.S. stock market. The video provides an analysis of the S&P 500's valuation, earnings expectations, and support levels, which are important for investors to gauge the market's health and potential future movements.

💡Volatility

Volatility in finance refers to the degree of variation of a trading price series over time as measured by the standard deviation of returns. In the video, the speaker discusses the volatility of Bitcoin and Ether, using it as an indicator of the potential for price changes and the risk associated with these assets.

💡Bitcoin

Bitcoin is a decentralized digital currency, without a central bank or single administrator, that can be sent from user to user on the peer-to-peer bitcoin network without the need for intermediaries. The video mentions Bitcoin's price and its trading near an all-time high, suggesting a high level of investor interest and market optimism.

💡Ether

Ether, also known as Ethereum, is a blockchain-based platform that runs smart contracts and the cryptocurrency Ether. It is similar to Bitcoin but has additional features that allow for more complex transactions. The video discusses Ether's price movement and its overbought condition, which could indicate a potential pullback in price.

💡Stock Analysis

Stock analysis involves evaluating a company's financials, industry position, and market conditions to determine the value of its stock. The video provides detailed stock analysis for various companies like Apple, Amazon, Tesla, and Nvidia, discussing their price movements, support and resistance levels, and potential trading opportunities.

💡Investor Sentiment

Investor sentiment refers to the overall attitude of investors toward the market or a particular security. It can influence buying and selling decisions and, consequently, market prices. The video addresses the fear and uncertainty created by sensational headlines and emphasizes the importance of a long-term, optimistic approach to investing rather than reacting to short-term market noise.

💡Swing Trading

Swing trading is a trading strategy that attempts to capture gains in a stock or other financial instrument, by leveraging price movements over a short period. The video mentions swing trading opportunities for Apple and Google, suggesting that these stocks are oversold and may present attractive entry points for traders looking to capitalize on potential price rebounds.

Highlights

Markets pushing higher, with NASDAQ up over half a percent and S&P just over 5100.

Jerome Powell's testimony was political and lacked focus on monetary policy.

Powell expects the Federal Reserve to cut rates once confident in inflation decline.

Inflation has eased since hitting a 40-year high in 2022.

Powell believes the US economy is not near a recession and expects continued growth.

Job openings at 8.8 million, slightly lower than consensus.

Ignore market predictions of crashes; focus on data and present analysis.

Peter Lynch's quote about more money lost trying to predict a crash than in an actual crash.

S&P 500 trading at 20 times earnings multiple on a forward 2024 basis.

Bitcoin trading just under 66,000, with resistance at 69 to $70,000.

Ether trading over 3700, with support level around 3600.

S&P 500 support level at 5000, with a higher low at 5450.

NASDAQ support level at 15750, with a potential breakdown to 1515-1545.

Apple oversold, with support level at 165.

Amazon resistance at 175-176, with next support at 155.

Tesla struggling, with support at 174-175 and potential fair value around 150.

Nvidia hitting new all-time highs, with support around 740-635.

AMD with a breakout, support level at 181.

PayPal in a downtrend, support level at 57-50.

Meta Platforms support at 490-451, with a gap to fill at 383.

Netflix support at 571-560, with a potential gap to fill at 496-485.

Google support at 126, with an ideal level at 117.

Microsoft support at 384-366, with resistance at 420.

Costco trading at a new all-time high, with overbought RSI.

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