Ranking Our Biggest Productivity App Predictions

Keep Productive
3 Aug 202212:10

TLDRIn a discussion about the future of productivity apps, the participants make several bold predictions. They anticipate that there will be no single app to rule them all, instead, users will rely on a multitude of specialized apps that need to be well-integrated. The conversation suggests that machine learning might overshadow smaller apps, but also that many of these apps will operate in the background, becoming invisible to the user. One participant predicts that Mem could overtake Evernote, while another believes Evernote will make a comeback due to user fatigue with constant change. There's also a prediction that Notion might lose its appeal if it doesn't streamline its structure, as the path of least resistance tends to win in productivity tools. Additionally, the discussion touches on the potential of graph-based apps like Rome, Obsidian, and Log Seek, but they are considered far from mainstream adoption. Lastly, there's a belief that task apps like Todoist and TickTick might decline in favor of planner apps that offer more comprehensive day planning features.

Takeaways

  • 📱 The idea of a single app to do everything is misguided; instead, we'll see an increase in specialized productivity apps.
  • 🔗 These specialized apps will need to be well-integrated into a larger system for effective use.
  • 🤖 Machine learning could potentially disrupt the reliance on numerous smaller apps.
  • 📈 As professions become more specialized, the need for precise tools increases, which may lead to more specialized apps.
  • 📚 MEM is predicted to become the next Evernote due to its combination of depth and ease of use.
  • 🔄 Evernote might make a comeback as users grow tired of constant change and choice overload.
  • 🔍 Notion could face challenges if it doesn't streamline its app for teams, potentially losing ground to more structured workflow apps.
  • 🔗 Graph-based or link-based apps like Roam, Obsidian, and Logseq are far from mainstream adoption and may not become widely used for over a decade.
  • 📉 Task apps like Todoist and TickTick might lose users to planner apps that offer more comprehensive day planning features.
  • ⏰ There's a trend towards apps that offer more automation and invisible processes, reducing the user's cognitive load.
  • 📉 The lowest friction and least energy-intensive tools are likely to prevail in the long run, as they align with the natural path of least resistance.

Q & A

  • What is Thiago Forte's first prediction about productivity apps?

    -Thiago Forte predicts that the idea of having one app to do everything is misguided. He believes that in the future, the average knowledge worker will use dozens of highly specialized productivity apps that need to be integrated into a bigger system.

  • How confident is Thiago Forte about his prediction on productivity apps?

    -Thiago Forte expresses a low confidence in his prediction, giving it only a 35 percent chance of happening. He hopes for fewer, better apps instead.

  • What does the host think might affect the proliferation of smaller apps?

    -The host suggests that advancements in machine learning might derail the proliferation of smaller, specialized apps, as machine learning could streamline many functions that these apps currently perform.

  • What is the host's 'spicy take' on the future of Mem in relation to Evernote?

    -The host predicts that Mem will become the next Evernote, taking over its spot as Evernote declines. He believes that Mem combines the deep note-taking capabilities of apps likeRoam and Obsidian with the ease of use that characterized Evernote in its early days, making it well-positioned to succeed.

  • What is Thiago Forte's second prediction regarding Evernote?

    -Thiago Forte predicts that Evernote will make a comeback, emphasizing that the company has gone back to its roots and completely re-architected its code base, which could lead to a resurgence in its popularity.

  • What is the host's bold claim about Notion's future?

    -The host claims that Notion could lose its competitive edge within the next three years if it doesn't sort out its structural issues, particularly for team use where its reliance on manual setup could hinder its scalability and efficiency.

  • How does the host view the future of task management apps like Todoist and TickTick?

    -The host believes that traditional task apps like Todoist and TickTick might suffer if they don't evolve to integrate more comprehensive day planning features. He predicts they could lose users to planner apps that offer more dynamic scheduling and planning capabilities.

  • What does Thiago Forte think about the mainstream adoption of graph-based or link-based apps like Roam, Obsidian, and Logseq?

    -Thiago Forte is very skeptical about the mainstream adoption of these complex productivity apps, estimating that it could take more than 10 years for such tools to reach a mainstream audience, if ever.

  • What does the host suggest could replace traditional task apps in the future?

    -The host suggests that planner apps, which offer more integrated and interactive scheduling features, might replace traditional task apps. He mentions apps like Motion, Accuflo, and Sama as examples of what future task management tools could look like.

  • What is the consensus on the future of Notion between the host and Thiago Forte?

    -Both the host and Thiago Forte agree that Notion faces significant challenges due to its high maintenance and setup requirements. They believe that the platform needs to reduce friction and simplify usage to maintain its user base in the long term.

Outlines

00:00

🚀 Future of Productivity Apps: Specialization and Integration

The discussion begins with a prediction that there will never be a single app to rule them all. Instead, the future will involve using an increasing number of specialized productivity apps, which will require seamless integration and connection to form a comprehensive system. The speaker expresses low confidence in this prediction, hoping for a more streamlined approach but acknowledges the trend towards specialization. The role of machine learning is also mentioned as a potential game-changer for productivity apps.

05:01

📚 The Rise of Mem and Evernote's Revival

The conversation continues with the assertion that Mem, a note-taking app with features reminiscent of Evernote's early days, is well-positioned to become the next dominant player in the market. The speaker also predicts a resurgence in Evernote's popularity as users grow tired of the constant changes and choices in productivity tools, seeking a return to a more stable and familiar option. The discussion touches on the potential for machine learning to enhance Evernote's capabilities and the appeal of a 'retro' approach to digital note-taking.

10:03

🛠️ Notion's Challenges and the Emergence of Planner Apps

The speakers express concerns about Notion's future if it doesn't address structural issues, particularly with team usage. They predict that reliance on manual setup and the 'template thing' could hinder its growth, especially with the advent of machine learning in productivity. The speakers agree that the path of least resistance often wins in productivity tools, and Notion's complexity might become a liability. They also discuss the potential for task apps like Todoist and TickTick to lose users to planner apps that offer more comprehensive day planning and scheduling features.

Mindmap

Keywords

💡Productivity Apps

Productivity apps are software applications designed to help users increase their efficiency and manage their tasks more effectively. In the video, the speakers discuss the future of such apps and predict trends in their development and usage. They mention how the average knowledge worker might use dozens of specialized productivity apps, which would need to be integrated into a larger system for seamless operation.

💡Second Brain Book

The 'Second Brain Book' is a reference to a book written by Thiago Forte, who is a guest in the video. The book likely explores the concept of creating a digital extension of one's memory and thought processes, which is a theme that resonates with the discussion of productivity apps and their role in knowledge management.

💡Machine Learning

Machine learning is a type of artificial intelligence that allows systems to learn and improve from experience without being explicitly programmed. In the context of the video, it is suggested that machine learning could play a significant role in the future of productivity apps, potentially making some smaller, specialized apps obsolete by integrating their functionalities into more comprehensive systems.

💡Evernote

Evernote is a well-known productivity app that allows users to take notes, create to-do lists, and organize information. The speakers discuss the potential resurgence of Evernote, suggesting that users might return to it due to its simplicity and reliability, especially in contrast to newer, more complex apps.

💡Mem

Mem is a note-taking app that is compared to Evernote in the video. It is suggested that Mem, with its combination of depth and ease of use, might be poised to take over Evernote's position as a leading note-taking app in the market.

💡Notion

Notion is a productivity app that offers a range of tools for organizing notes, tasks, and projects. The speakers predict that Notion might face challenges in the future if it doesn't adapt to changes in the productivity app landscape, particularly with the advent of more automated and machine learning-driven apps.

💡Graph-Based or Link-Based Apps

Graph-based or link-based apps like Rome, Obsidian, and Log Seek are productivity tools that emphasize interconnectedness and the ability to create links between different pieces of information. The speakers suggest that these apps are currently far from mainstream adoption and may remain niche due to their complexity and the learning curve associated with them.

💡Task Apps

Task apps, such as Todoist and TickTick, are applications designed to help users manage their to-do lists and tasks. The discussion in the video posits that these apps might lose users to planner apps if they do not evolve to better integrate into users' daily schedules and provide more comprehensive planning features.

💡Planner Apps

Planner apps are a type of productivity software that goes beyond simple task management to help users plan their days more effectively. The speakers predict a shift from task apps to planner apps, which offer more guidance and structure in organizing one's day and aligning tasks with a broader schedule.

💡Integration

Integration refers to the process of combining different systems or apps to work together as a unified whole. In the video, the importance of integration is emphasized, as the speakers predict that users will rely on a variety of specialized apps that need to be connected and work seamlessly together for optimal productivity.

💡Knowledge Worker

A knowledge worker is a person who develops or uses knowledge for the production of intellectual or creative capital. In the context of the video, the term is used to describe the average professional who is expected to utilize multiple specialized productivity apps in their work, highlighting the need for these apps to be highly integrated.

Highlights

Prediction that there will never be a single app to do everything, instead, an increase in specialized productivity apps.

The average knowledge worker will use dozens of super specialized productivity apps.

Specialized apps will need to be connected and integrated into a larger system.

Low confidence in the idea of a single app for everything, with a 35% rating.

The potential for machine learning to disrupt the market of smaller, specialized apps.

Many future productivity apps will be invisible, automated, and act as sub-components.

Specialization in professions leads to the use of more precise tools for specific jobs.

Mem is predicted to become the next Evernote due to its combination of depth and ease of use.

High confidence in Mem's potential, rated at 70%.

Evernote is expected to make a comeback by returning to its roots and re-architecting its code base.

People may flock back to Evernote due to fatigue from constant change and choice overload.

Notion might lose its lead if it doesn't sort out structural issues with its app for teams.

Reliance on manualization in apps like Evernote and Notion could hinder future plans.

The prediction that Notion will lose its lead within three years, rated at 75%.

Graph-based or link-based apps like Rome, Obsidian, and Log Seek are far from mainstream adoption.

Estimation that these apps are at least 10 years away from mainstream adoption, with a 15% chance.

Task apps like Todoist and TickTick may suffer if they don't evolve and integrate better into day planning.

Planner apps might overtake task apps due to their ability to help plan days more effectively.

A 30% chance that task apps will suffer significant user base loss to planner apps.

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