THESE STOCKS WILL GO CRAZY TOMORROW

StockedUp
6 Mar 202420:57

TLDRIn this video, the hosts discuss the recent market volatility, highlighting the unusual performance of NYCB, a bank stock that experienced a 50% drop and a 125% increase in the same day. They also address Jerome Powell's testimony, the market's extended streak without significant falls, and their predictions for the upcoming trading days. The hosts share their insights on various stocks and sectors, including Boeing, TSM, and the volatility index, while emphasizing the importance of risk management in the current unpredictable market environment.

Takeaways

  • 📉 The stock market experienced significant volatility with NYCB (New York Community Bank) losing 50% of its value and then increasing by 125% in the same day.
  • 💹 The market is on a record streak with minimal falls, which is unusual and could indicate more volatility to come.
  • 🗣️ Jerome Powell's testimony before the House did not cause significant market reactions, but his statements about inflation and interest rates were closely watched.
  • 📈 The Fed watch tool suggests a pause in rate cuts for May, with potential cuts starting in June.
  • 📊 Historically, the market averages 29 days per year with a 1% or more fall, but in 2024 so far, there have only been three such days.
  • 🚀 The market has been rising since November 2023, and traders should be prepared for a potential pullback.
  • 🛠️ Traders should be ready to adapt to market movements, whether up or down, as opportunities for trading arise from these movements.
  • 📅 Upcoming events to watch include Powell's testimony to the Senate, non-farm payrolls, and unemployment rate reports.
  • 📝 Earnings reports from Broadcom, Costco, Marvell, and DocuSign are expected to have a significant impact on the market.
  • 🔍 Specific stocks to watch for potential trading opportunities include Boeing, SLV (silver), UVXY (volatility), and Palantir.

Q & A

  • What happened to the stock with the ticker symbol NYCB?

    -The stock with ticker symbol NYCB, which represents New York Community Bank, experienced a significant event where it lost 50% of its value and then increased by 125% all in the same day. This is unusual for a bank with over a hundred billion dollars in assets.

  • What did Jerome Powell say in his testimony that affected the market?

    -Jerome Powell, the Federal Reserve Chairman, testified that the Fed is not ready to cut rates yet as they need to be more confident that inflation is under control. He emphasized the importance of not cutting rates and then having inflation rise again, which would create a significant problem.

  • What is the significance of the market's current streak?

    -The market is on one of its longest streaks in over 25 years, with very few days where the market has fallen by 1% or more. This is notable because, historically, there are typically 29 such days in a year, and in 2024, there have only been three so far.

  • Why is it important for traders to be prepared for more volatility?

    -It's important for traders to be prepared for more volatility because the market has been experiencing a lot of movement in both directions, and this can lead to both opportunities and risks. Being prepared allows traders to adapt to changing market conditions and manage their risk effectively.

  • What stocks are being watched closely for potential trading opportunities?

    -Boeing, SLV (silver), uvxy (volatility index), and Palantir are some of the stocks and ETFs being watched closely for potential trading opportunities due to their recent price movements and market conditions.

  • What is the significance of the $200 support level for Boeing?

    -The $200 support level for Boeing is significant because it has consistently held as a level where buyers have entered the market, even when there's a lot of volume and sellers. This level is being closely watched for potential bounce plays or potential breaks that could lead to puts.

  • What is the outlook for TSM (Taiwan Semiconductors) based on the big money trade?

    -The big money trade involves a $929,000 investment in TSM 145 strike put options expiring on April 19th, 2024. This suggests a bearish outlook, especially considering TSM's overextended position and the significant resistance level it has encountered around $140 to $145.

  • What is the strategy for trading TSM based on the resistance level?

    -The strategy is to wait for a rejection off the resistance level or a break below $140 before entering the trade. This approach aims to capitalize on the potential downside if the chip boom continues and TSM fails to break through the resistance.

  • What is the importance of risk management in trading?

    -Risk management is crucial in trading to ensure that traders can sustain losses and continue trading. It involves setting stop-loss orders, not investing too heavily in any single trade, and being aware of market conditions to avoid significant financial losses.

  • What is the significance of Jerome Powell's testimony for the rest of the week?

    -Jerome Powell's testimony is significant as it can influence market expectations regarding interest rates and inflation control. His statements can lead to market volatility, and traders should be prepared for potential shifts in market direction based on his comments.

Outlines

00:00

📈 Market Volatility and NYCB's Wild Ride

The video begins with a discussion on the current market volatility, highlighting the dramatic movements in the stock market. The focus is on NYCB, a bank stock that experienced a 50% drop and a 125% increase in the same day. The video also mentions Jerome Powell's upcoming speech and the market's long streak of minimal falls, suggesting that traders should be prepared for potential changes in market direction.

05:01

📊 Historical Market Trends and Powell's Testimony

The second paragraph delves into historical market trends, noting that the market has had fewer days of significant falls in 2024 compared to the average. The discussion includes Jerome Powell's testimony, where he emphasizes the need for inflation control before considering rate cuts. The market's reaction to Powell's speech is also mentioned, with a brief analysis of the Fed's rate cut expectations.

10:02

🚀 Preparing for Market Shifts and Earnings Reports

This paragraph focuses on the importance of adapting to market shifts, especially given the market's continuous rise since November 2023. The speakers warn against complacency and encourage traders to be ready for increased volatility. They also discuss the ongoing streak of no 2% pullbacks and upcoming earnings reports from Broadcom, Costco, and DocuSign, which could significantly impact the market.

15:03

🔍 Trading Setups and Big Money Plays

The fourth paragraph provides insights into specific trading setups for the next day, including stocks like Boeing, SLV (silver), and UVXY (volatility index). The speakers analyze support levels, potential bounce plays, and the significance of market makers' expectations for future volatility. They also discuss the risk-reward balance for these trades and the importance of risk management.

20:05

💰 Big Money Trade of the Day and Market Outlook

The final paragraph highlights a big money trade involving TSM (Taiwan Semiconductors), where a significant investment was made in put options. The speakers discuss the stock's resistance level and the potential for a breakdown if the chip boom continues. They also emphasize the importance of risk management and provide a strategy for entering the trade. The video concludes with a reminder of Powell's upcoming testimony and an invitation for viewers to join the Stocked Up trading community.

Mindmap

Keywords

💡Volatility

Volatility refers to the rate at which the price of a security, asset, or market fluctuates. In the context of the video, it is used to describe the unpredictable and rapid changes in stock prices, such as the 50% drop and 125% increase of NYCB stock in a single day. This concept is central to the video's theme of market unpredictability and the importance of being prepared for sudden shifts in trading conditions.

💡Ticker Symbol

A ticker symbol is an abbreviation used to uniquely identify publicly traded companies and their stocks on a stock exchange. In the video, 'NYCB' is the ticker symbol for New York Community Bank, which experienced significant volatility. The use of ticker symbols is a common practice in financial discussions to quickly reference specific stocks.

💡Powell

Refers to Jerome Powell, the Chair of the Federal Reserve. His speeches and testimonies are closely watched by the financial markets as they can influence monetary policy and, consequently, market trends. In the video, Powell's upcoming testimony is highlighted as a significant event that could affect market direction.

💡Inflation

Inflation is the rate at which the general level of prices for goods and services is rising, and subsequently, purchasing power is falling. In the video, the concern over inflation is mentioned as a reason for the Federal Reserve's cautious approach to adjusting interest rates, which is a key factor in the financial markets' expectations.

💡Market Makers

Market makers are entities or individuals that provide liquidity to markets by buying and selling securities. They are responsible for maintaining an orderly market by facilitating trades. In the video, market makers' expectations of future volatility are mentioned as a reason for the simultaneous rise in the market and the volatility index, which is unusual and signals potential upcoming market turbulence.

💡VIX

The VIX, or Volatility Index, is a measure of the stock market's expectation of volatility over the coming 30 days. It is often referred to as the 'fear index' because it tends to rise when investors are fearful of market declines. In the video, the VIX's increase alongside the market's rise is noted as a rare event that suggests market participants are anticipating increased volatility.

💡Earnings Reports

Earnings reports are financial statements released by publicly traded companies that detail their revenue, expenses, and profits over a specific period. These reports are closely watched by investors as they can significantly impact a company's stock price. In the video, upcoming earnings reports from Broadcom, Costco, Marvell, and DocuSign are mentioned as events to watch, as they could influence market sentiment and stock performance.

💡Support and Resistance Levels

In technical analysis, support and resistance levels are price points at which a stock's price tends to stop falling (support) or stop rising (resistance). These levels are used by traders to make decisions about buying or selling. In the video, the $200 support level for Boeing and the resistance level around $140-$145 for TSM (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company) are discussed as critical points to monitor for potential trading opportunities.

💡Options

Options are financial derivatives that give the buyer the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell an asset at a set price before a certain date. In the video, the discussion of the $929,000 put options on TSM at the $145 strike price expiring on April 19th, 2024, illustrates how options can be used to speculate on or hedge against potential price movements in the underlying stock.

💡Risk Management

Risk management is the process of identifying, assessing, and prioritizing risks followed by coordinating and implementing appropriate actions to minimize, monitor, and control the probability or impact of unfortunate events. In the video, the hosts emphasize the importance of risk management in trading, advising viewers not to invest too heavily in any single trade and to be prepared for market volatility.

Highlights

The stock market experienced high volatility with a stock (NYCB) losing 50% of its value and then increasing by 125% in the same day.

The Federal Reserve's Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak again, which could impact the market.

The market is on one of its longest streaks in over 25 years with minimal falling.

New York Community Bank (NYCB) stock had multiple halts during trading, leading to significant short-term volatility.

Powell's testimony before the House did not cause extreme market reactions, and he emphasized the need for inflation control before rate cuts.

The Fed watch tool suggests a pause in rate changes for May, with potential cuts starting in June.

The market has been experiencing less than average days of 1% or more falls, indicating potential for increased volatility.

The speaker warns against being too complacent in a bull market and emphasizes the importance of adapting to market changes.

The market has been rising since November 2023, and the speaker advises being prepared for a potential pullback.

The speaker discusses the importance of watching major support levels for stocks like Boeing and the potential for bounce plays.

The speaker mentions the unusual rise in the VIX (volatility index) alongside the market, indicating expected future volatility.

The speaker is watching stocks like SLV (silver), Boeing, and uvxy (volatility ETF) for potential trading opportunities.

The speaker discusses the significance of the $200 support level for Boeing and the potential for puts if it breaks below.

The speaker highlights the potential for momentum plays with stocks like Poener and Modna, depending on market conditions.

The speaker mentions the big money trade of the day, involving TSM (Taiwan Semiconductors) and the potential for a breakdown if it rejects resistance.

The speaker emphasizes the importance of risk management and not overcommitting to any single trade.

The speaker invites viewers to join the Stocked Up trading floor for access to trading bots, big money trades, and live events.

The speaker reminds viewers to watch Powell's testimony the next day for potential market impacts.

The speaker encourages new viewers to subscribe to the channel for regular market updates and trading insights.

Create Stunning AI Art Instantly

No login. No cost. Just incredible AI images !

Create Stunning AI Art InstantlyGenerate Now