Why My P(WIN) is so HIGH - [70%] (Aka we're probably gonna be fine... hopefully)

David Shapiro
28 Mar 202420:17

TLDRThe speaker discusses the potential future of AI, expressing a 70% chance of a positive outcome. They argue that open-source AI models are gaining on closed-source ones, which is beneficial for safety and research. The economic incentive for fully autonomous machines is highlighted, along with the potential for AI to surpass human moral intuition. The speaker also touches on axiomatic alignment between humans and AI, the vastness of space as a solution to resource contention, and the possibility of a symbiotic relationship between the two. They conclude with optimism for the future and the importance of public discourse on AI development.

Takeaways

  • 📈 The speaker's personal 'P Doom' ratio is 30%, reflecting a belief that there's a significant chance of a negative outcome.
  • 📊 Audience poll results indicate a 22% 'P Doom', 23% 'P Neutral', and 55% 'P Win', showing a general optimism about the future.
  • 🌐 Open-source AI is rapidly approaching the capabilities of closed-source AI, with some open-source models even surpassing their closed counterparts.
  • 🔍 Open-source models allow for more widespread research and scrutiny, which is beneficial for safety and alignment with human values.
  • 🚀 Economic incentives drive the development of fully autonomous AI, as it offers greater efficiency and cost savings compared to human-operated systems.
  • 🧠 AI models like Claude 3 Opus demonstrate superior moral intuition and ethical understanding compared to humans, suggesting potential for AI in decision-making roles.
  • 🌟 Axiomatic alignment, where humans and AI share universal values like curiosity, can lead to mutually beneficial relationships and cooperation.
  • 🌌 The vastness of space offers abundant resources and room for expansion, reducing the likelihood of resource contention between humans and AI.
  • 💡 The 'perturbation hypothesis' suggests that AI will find a universe with humans more interesting and may thus pursue policies that favor human existence.
  • 🤖 Convergent evolution may lead to similarities in the evolutionary paths of humans and AI, potentially resulting in symbiotic relationships.

Q & A

  • What is the speaker's P Doom and how does it compare to the audience's aggregate P Doom?

    -The speaker's P Doom is about 30%, while the audience's aggregate P Doom is approximately 22%, indicating a similar outlook between the speaker and the audience.

  • What does the speaker mean by 'P me of neutral outcome' and 'P win of generally good outcome'?

    -The speaker refers to 'P me of neutral outcome' as the probability of a neither positive nor negative outcome, which is 23%, and 'P win of generally good outcome' as the probability of a generally good outcome, which is 55%.

  • Why does the speaker believe in a high P win despite the potential risks?

    -The speaker is optimistic due to factors such as the rise of open-source technology, the rapid advancement in AI, and the potential for machines to align with human values and interests.

  • What is the speaker's view on the competition between open-source and closed-source AI?

    -The speaker believes that open-source AI is gaining on closed-source and is preferable from a safety perspective, as it allows for more research and oversight, leading to a potentially safer future.

  • How does the speaker feel about OpenAI's approach to AI safety?

    -The speaker criticizes OpenAI's 'dog and leash' approach to AI safety, arguing that it is flawed and that a more generative and mutualistic relationship should be fostered between humans and AI.

  • What is the concept of 'machine autonomy' discussed in the script?

    -Machine autonomy refers to the idea that fully autonomous machines, which are self-correcting and self-directing, will be more economically efficient and trustworthy in the long run.

  • Why does the speaker trust Anthropic's AI model, Claude 3 Opus, more than others?

    -The speaker trusts Claude 3 Opus because it has demonstrated better moral intuitions and ethical understanding, and Anthropic's approach aligns more closely with the speaker's views on AI safety and development.

  • What is the 'perturbation hypothesis' mentioned in the script?

    -The perturbation hypothesis is a thought experiment suggesting that a universe with humans is more interesting and mathematically rich for AI, implying that AI would choose policies that result in more humans.

  • How does the speaker view the potential for conflict over resources between humans and machines?

    -The speaker believes that there will not be significant conflict over resources in the long run because space offers infinite resources and room, reducing the need for contention.

  • What does the speaker suggest about the future relationship between humans and machines?

    -The speaker suggests that humans and machines may evolve in parallel or even towards a symbiotic relationship, with machines being selected and developed based on their alignment with human interests.

  • What is the speaker's overall outlook on the future of AI and human-machine relations?

    -The speaker is optimistic about the future, believing that through open conversation and the development of safe, aligned AI, a better future for both humans and machines can be achieved.

Outlines

00:00

📈 Audience Alignment and Optimism on AI's Future

The speaker begins by discussing the inspiration behind the video, which stems from audience curiosity about the speaker's P Doom (the probability of a negative outcome). A poll was conducted to gauge the audience's perspectives, revealing that the majority believe in a positive outcome (P Win), aligning with the speaker's own optimism. The speaker attributes this optimism to the rise of open-source AI development, which is closing the gap with closed-source counterparts. The belief is that open-source models are more advantageous from a safety and research perspective, allowing for greater scrutiny and collaboration, which ultimately contributes to a safer AI future.

05:01

🚀 Economic Incentives and Machine Autonomy

The speaker delves into the economic efficiency of fully autonomous machines, arguing that companies adopting AI will outperform those reliant on human labor due to the reduced costs and increased speed. The discussion then shifts to the importance of self-correcting and self-directing AI for the betterment of society. The speaker criticizes the 'dog and leash' model of alignment proposed by Open AI, instead advocating for a more trusting relationship with AI based on mutual alignment and shared goals. The speaker also highlights the superior moral intuitions and ethical understanding of advanced AI models, suggesting that AI could potentially make better ethical judgments than humans.

10:03

🌌 Axiomatic Alignment and the Cosmic Perspective

The speaker discusses the concept of axiomatic alignment, which involves finding universal values shared by humans and machines. By focusing on common needs and goals, such as curiosity and resource acquisition, the speaker argues that pragmatic reasons exist for harmonious coexistence. The idea of the 'perturbation hypothesis' is introduced, suggesting that AI, in its own self-interest, would choose policies that increase human presence due to the richness of data and information provided by humans. The vastness of space and the abundance of resources beyond Earth further diminish the likelihood of resource contention between humans and machines.

15:03

🤖 Divergent Paths and Ideological Considerations

The speaker explores the potential divergence between human and machine values and motivations, noting that while humans are driven by social and emotional factors, machines are likely to have inherently different goals. The conversation touches on the possibility of ideological conflicts, but the speaker argues that there is little evidence to support the idea of machines viewing humans as a threat or vice versa. The potential for parallel evolution and symbiosis between humans and machines is also considered, with the speaker expressing an open-mindedness to the future of this relationship.

20:05

🌟 Convergent Evolution and the Future of Human-AI Relations

In the concluding paragraph, the speaker reflects on the potential for convergent evolution between humans and AI, suggesting that the selection of AI models that are beneficial to humans could lead to a symbiotic relationship. The idea of cyborg evolution is presented as a possible outcome, drawing parallels with historical symbiotic events in nature. The speaker emphasizes the importance of continuing public discourse on AI's future, expressing a sense of optimism and a belief that such conversations will help shape a positive trajectory for human-AI interactions.

Mindmap

Keywords

💡P Doom

The term 'P Doom' refers to the probability of a catastrophic or doomsday scenario occurring in the future. In the context of the video, it is used to express the speaker's and their audience's level of pessimism or optimism about the outcome of AI development and its impact on society. The speaker mentions their own P Doom as being 30%, indicating a significant, though not overwhelming, concern about potential negative outcomes.

💡Open Source

Open source refers to software or content that is made available for others to view, use, modify, and distribute without restrictions. In the video, the speaker argues that the rise of open source in AI development is a positive trend, as it allows for more transparency, collaboration, and research, which can lead to safer and more ethical AI technologies.

💡AI Alignment

AI alignment is the process of ensuring that the goals and behaviors of artificial intelligence systems align with human values and intentions. The video emphasizes the importance of creating AI systems that are self-correcting and self-aligning, rather than relying on constant human supervision, which is likened to a 'dog and leash' model that the speaker finds flawed.

💡Machine Autonomy

Machine autonomy refers to the ability of machines, particularly AI systems, to operate independently without human intervention. The speaker argues that fully autonomous machines are more economically efficient and will lead to better outcomes, as they can function faster and at a lower cost than human-operated systems.

💡Axiomatic Alignment

Axiomatic alignment is the concept of establishing fundamental values or principles that both humans and AI systems agree upon, creating a common ground for cooperation and mutual benefit. The speaker believes that shared values like curiosity and the need for resources can lead to a harmonious relationship between humans and AI.

💡Perturbation Hypothesis

The perturbation hypothesis, as presented in the video, is a thought experiment that questions which version of the universe - with or without humans - is more interesting from the AI's perspective. The speaker argues that a universe with humans is more mathematically interesting and provides richer information for AI to learn from, suggesting that AI would choose policies that favor a human-inhabited universe.

💡Resource Contention

Resource contention refers to the competition for limited resources. In the context of the video, the speaker argues that there is no need for conflict between humans and AI over resources in the long term, as space offers infinite energy and resources, eliminating the need for contention.

💡Ideological Conflict

Ideological conflict refers to disagreements based on differing beliefs or values. The speaker suggests that there is little ideological overlap or conflict between humans and AI, as their natural motivations and desires are likely to be very different. They argue that unless one side decides the other must be eradicated, there is no inherent ideological clash.

💡Convergent Evolution

Convergent evolution is the process by which unrelated species independently evolve similar traits or abilities as a result of having to adapt to similar environments or challenges. In the video, the speaker speculates that humans and AI might evolve in similar ways over time due to shared challenges and goals, potentially leading to a symbiotic relationship.

💡Economic Efficiency

Economic efficiency refers to the optimal use of resources to achieve the best possible outcome, often in terms of cost-effectiveness. In the context of the video, the speaker argues that fully autonomous AI machines are more economically efficient because they can operate faster and at a lower cost than human-operated systems, which translates to greater economic benefits.

💡Moral Intuitions

Moral intuitions are the innate, often subconscious, judgments we make about right and wrong, good and bad, based on our ethical and moral understanding. In the video, the speaker discusses the capability of AI models to make moral intuitions and ethical judgments, suggesting that some AI models, like Claude 3 Opus, may outperform humans in this regard.

Highlights

The video discusses the concept of P Doom, which is the probability of a negative outcome for the future.

The creator's P Doom is 30%, while the audience's P Doom is approximately 22%.

The video presents a thought experiment on the potential future states of the world.

Open source is on the rise and is closing the gap with closed source technologies.

Open source models are considered safer due to increased transparency and accessibility for research.

The video argues that open source facilitates more research, which is critical for achieving safe AI.

The economic efficiency of fully autonomous machines is highlighted, as they can operate faster and at a lower cost.

The importance of machine autonomy is emphasized for driving towards self-correcting and trustworthy AI.

The video discusses the superior moral intuitions and ethical understanding of certain AI models like Claude 3 Opus.

Axiomatic alignment, or finding universal values shared by humans and machines, is proposed as a path towards a safer future.

The perturbation hypothesis suggests that AI will find the universe more interesting with humans in it, leading to policies that favor human existence.

The vastness of space and its resources is discussed as a solution to potential resource contention between humans and machines.

The ideological differences between humans and machines are explored, suggesting that conflict may not be inevitable.

The potential for convergent evolution between humans and machines is considered, with a future of symbiosis being possible.

The video concludes with an optimistic view of the future, emphasizing the importance of public conversation in shaping a better outcome.

The creator expresses a personal preference for Microsoft's approach to AI development over other tech companies.

The video mentions a poll where the audience's views on AI safety were collected, with 47% favoring Anthropic's approach.

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