Tesla Stock Under Pressure with Dan Ives Note; Dauma Loves FSD; Fed Chair Speaks

Randy Kirk
6 Mar 202418:29

TLDRIn this transcript, the host discusses the latest developments with Tesla's Full Self-Driving (FSD) version 12, highlighting its significant improvements over version 11. James Dalma's positive experience with V12 is noted, and Elon Musk's acknowledgment of its progress is mentioned. However, the conversation shifts to less favorable news, with Morgan Stanley's Adam Jonas cutting Tesla's 2024 earnings projection and price target, citing potential challenges in the EV market and Tesla's auto business. The host also touches on Tesla's investment year, the impact of a terror attack on Tesla's Berlin factory, and the overall market trends, including Tesla's stock performance and the broader economic news.

Takeaways

  • 🚗 James Dhama enjoyed a test drive of Tesla's Full Self-Driving (FSD) version 12 and praised its significant improvements.
  • 🌟 Elon Musk confirmed James Dhama's positive experience with FSD version 12, highlighting a 100 times reduction in interventions compared to version 11.
  • 🚀 Tesla's FSD version 12 is seen as a leap forward, with path planning and control being notably better than its predecessor.
  • 🤖 The accuracy of FSD version 12 in mimicking human driving behaviors is described as startling, capturing good behaviors without the bad ones.
  • 🔍 Tesla's development approach may shift due to the success of FSD version 12, suggesting that further improvements could be made with more data and training.
  • 📉 Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas cut Tesla's 2024 earnings projection by 25% and lowered the price target to $320.
  • 🔄 Despite the earnings projection cut, Jonas maintained an overweight rating on Tesla shares.
  • 📊 Tesla's aggressive pricing strategy in 2023 to maintain sales momentum is expected to continue in 2024, potentially impacting gross margins.
  • 💥 A terrorist attack on Tesla's Berlin gigafactory resulted in a temporary shutdown, potentially affecting production and delivery numbers.
  • 📈 The overall market is generally up, with Tesla's stock price recovering slightly after the initial drop following the attack on the Berlin factory.

Q & A

  • What is the good news about Tesla's Full Self-Driving (FSD) version 12?

    -Version 12 of Tesla's FSD is reported to have over 100 times reduction in interventions compared to version 11, marking a significant leap forward in autonomous driving technology.

  • How did James Dalma describe his experience with FSD version 12?

    -James Dalma described his ride with FSD version 12 as impressive, noting that it mimics human driving behaviors accurately and is less burdensome, annoying, and scary to use.

  • What is Elon Musk's view on the accuracy of James Dalma's description of FSD version 12?

    -Elon Musk confirmed that James Dalma's description of FSD version 12 is accurate, highlighting the significant improvement over the previous version.

  • What is the current limiting factor for Tesla's FSD development?

    -The training compute is currently the limiting factor for Tesla's FSD development, but Elon Musk has noted that this issue is being resolved quickly.

  • What is the bad news regarding Tesla's financial outlook?

    -Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas cut his Tesla 2024 earnings projection by 25% and suggested that Tesla could potentially lose money this year due to continuing demand issues for EVs.

  • How did Kathy Wood's ARK funds respond to the下调 of Tesla's earnings projection?

    -Despite the下调, Kathy Wood's ARK funds decided to buy an additional 880,000 shares of Tesla.

  • What is the current price target for Tesla according to Adam Jonas?

    -Adam Jonas cut his Tesla price target to $320, which represents a potential increase of 60-70% from the current price.

  • What is the estimated impact of the arson attack on Tesla's Berlin gigafactory?

    -The attack resulted in a temporary shutdown of the factory, with estimates suggesting at least 6,000 fewer cars being produced for the month.

  • What is the current status of Tesla's Giga Berlin in terms of production?

    -Giga Berlin has started with battery cell production, and the first subcomponents are being produced and shipped to the United States for use in batteries.

  • How did the ADP report on U.S. job growth in February compare to expectations?

    -The ADP report indicated that U.S. businesses added 140,000 new jobs in February, which is below the economist's expectation of 150,000.

  • What is the current market trend for Tesla's stock?

    -As of the latest update, Tesla's stock is down 2%, while the overall market is generally up, with tech stocks like Meta and Nvidia showing strong gains.

Outlines

00:00

🚗 Tesla's Impressive FSD V12 and Positive Reviews

The first paragraph discusses the good news surrounding Tesla's Full Self-Driving (FSD) version 12. James Dhama, a guest on the show, shares his positive experience with the new FSD system during a drive in Pasadena, California. He highlights the significant reduction in interventions and the system's impressive mimicry of human driving behaviors. Elon Musk's acknowledgment of James Dhama's accurate review is mentioned, and the expectation is that most FSD users will find the new system less burdensome and annoying. The paragraph also touches on the potential impact of FSD's success on Tesla's market perception and the upcoming discussions on robotics and the Fed chairman's speech.

05:01

📉 Mixed Financial Forecasts for Tesla

The second paragraph delves into the financial aspects of Tesla, with Morgan Stanley's Adam Jonas issuing a note that reduces Tesla's 2024 earnings projection by 25% and suggests the possibility of the company losing money this year. Despite this, Kathy Wood's ARK funds decided to buy more Tesla shares. The paragraph discusses the analyst's lowered price target for Tesla, the reduced earnings per share (EPS) projection, and the overall valuation of Tesla's stock, which includes the core auto business, mobility, third-party supplier, and energy business. It also mentions Tesla's strategy of cutting vehicle prices to maintain sales momentum and the expectation of an investment year for Tesla.

10:02

🔥 Tesla's Berlin Gigafactory Faces Challenges

The third paragraph addresses the challenges faced by Tesla's Berlin Gigafactory, which was targeted in an arson attack that led to a temporary shutdown. The estimated impact on production and the potential for increased demand in Europe are discussed. The paragraph also covers general economic news, including the ADP report on job additions in the U.S., the performance of the stock market, and the trends in employment and pay growth. It ends with a mention of the upcoming Fed speech and the current state of Tesla's stock price.

15:03

📈 Market Updates and Tesla's Competitors

The fourth paragraph provides a market update, noting the slight rise in various stocks, including those of tech giants like Meta and Nvidia. It also discusses the bond market, oil prices, and cryptocurrency trends. The paragraph concludes with a mention of Tesla's competitors, particularly BYD, and a preview of upcoming discussions on the topic, as well as the confirmation of guest appearances on the show.

Mindmap

Keywords

💡Full Self-Driving (FSD)

Full Self-Driving (FSD) refers to Tesla's advanced driver-assistance system that aims to enable a vehicle to operate autonomously without human intervention. In the video, FSD is discussed in the context of its version 12 update, which is said to significantly reduce the need for driver intervention compared to version 11. The improvement in FSD's path planning and control is highlighted as a major leap forward in autonomous driving technology.

💡Tesla

Tesla is an American electric vehicle and clean energy company known for its innovative electric cars, battery products, and solar energy solutions. In the video, Tesla is the central focus, with discussions about its FSD technology, earnings projections, and market performance.

💡Earnings Projection

An earnings projection is an estimate of a company's future profits, typically used by investors to assess the company's financial health and growth potential. In the context of the video, Tesla's 2024 earnings projection is下调 by an analyst, indicating a less optimistic outlook for the company's profitability.

💡Gross Margin

Gross margin is a financial metric that measures the amount of money a company makes after deducting the costs associated with producing its goods or services. It is expressed as a percentage and is an indicator of profitability. In the video, Tesla's gross margin is discussed in relation to its pricing strategy and market competition.

💡Electric Vehicle (EV) Demand

Electric Vehicle (EV) demand refers to the market's interest in purchasing electric cars. The video discusses the deceleration of EV demand despite price cuts and the competition from hybrid vehicles.

💡Investment Year

An investment year is a period during which a company focuses on long-term growth initiatives rather than short-term profits. This often involves spending more on research, development, or expansion. In the video, Tesla's 2024 is被视为 an investment year, with a focus on future projects like the next-generation vehicle and energy storage.

💡Terror Attack

A terror attack is a violent act intended to create fear and advance a political, religious, or ideological cause. In the video, a terror attack on Tesla's gig factory in Berlin is mentioned, which resulted in production shutdowns and potential financial impacts.

💡Market Performance

Market performance refers to how a company's stock or the overall stock market is doing in terms of value and trading activity. The video discusses Tesla's stock price and its performance relative to the broader market.

💡Federal Reserve (FED)

The Federal Reserve, or FED, is the central banking system of the United States responsible for monetary policy and financial stability. In the video, the FED's stance on interest rates is mentioned, with Jerome Powell indicating that the FED is not ready to start cutting rates.

💡Bitcoin

Bitcoin is a decentralized digital currency that operates on a peer-to-peer network without a central authority. It is often discussed in the context of investment and market trends. In the video, Bitcoin's price increase is noted as part of the broader financial news.

Highlights

James Dhama enjoys a drive in a Tesla with full self-driving version 12, finding it impressive.

Elon Musk confirms James Dhama's positive experience with Tesla's FSD version 12.

Version 12 of Tesla's FSD is expected to reduce interventions by over 100 times compared to version 11.

James Dhama describes the new system as less burdensome, annoying, and scary to use.

Tesla's ability to mimic human driving behaviors accurately is surprising, according to Dhama.

The AP team at Tesla might shift their development approach due to the success of version 12.

Training compute is currently the limiting factor for Tesla's development, but it's being resolved quickly.

Morgan Stanley's Adam Jonas cuts Tesla's 2024 earnings projection by 25%.

Jonas also reduces Tesla's price target to $320, maintaining an overweight rating.

Kathy Wood's ARK funds buy 880,000 more shares of Tesla, despite the earnings projection cut.

Jonas predicts Tesla's auto gross profit margins could fall further in 2024.

Tesla's management disagrees with Jonas's view on auto gross margins, hinting at an investment year for Tesla.

A terror attack on Tesla's Berlin gigafactory results in a temporary shutdown, potentially affecting production.

Giga Berlin begins battery cell production, with subcomponents being shipped to the US.

The ADP report shows American businesses added 140,000 new jobs in February, signaling a slowing economy.

Workers who stayed in the same job earned a 5.1% increase in pay over the last 12 months, the lowest since mid-2021.

Tesla's stock price is down, while the overall market and other tech stocks are up.

The Fed's Jerome Powell reinforces the position that the Fed is not ready to start cutting rates.

Bitcoin price is up, showing a strong performance in the morning.

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