The Four Futures Planner-AI-driven future scenario planner

Example

A startup developing AI-driven healthcare solutions can use the planner to explore four distinct scenarios: minimal AI progress, slow but steady growth, rapid exponential AI development, and the emergence of AGI. By examining the potential regulatory environment, societal acceptance, and technological readiness in each scenario, the startup can determine the best path forward for product development and market entry.

Scenario

A company using The Four Futures Planner to evaluate long-term strategies for adapting to a rapidly changing technological landscape.

Example

A government agency may use STEEP analysis to assess how advancements in AI could impact unemployment rates, healthcare systems, and urban planning by integrating social (e.g., job displacement), technological (e.g., automation levels), economic (e.g., productivity gains), environmental (e.g., resource optimization), and political (e.g., new regulations) forces.

Scenario

A city planning team using The Four Futures Planner to develop a policy framework for integrating AI into public services, with a focus on minimizing societal disruptions and optimizing benefits.

Example

A financial institution looking to evaluate risk factors associated with AI investments might develop a 2x2 matrix using variables like 'rate of AI progress' and 'regulatory adaptation speed.' This exercise helps decision-makers visualize possible future states and determine how the institution should position itself based on high-risk or high-reward scenarios.

Scenario

An investment firm using The Four Futures Planner to make informed portfolio decisions by weighing the risks and opportunities presented in four different AI futures.

Example

A multinational company interested in tracking key signals of AI growth (e.g., breakthroughs in natural language processing or the introduction of new AI regulatory laws) can use The Four Futures Planner to set up a system of indicators. This allows the company to pivot strategies based on early signs of which AI trajectory is most likely to unfold.

Scenario

A tech company monitoring signals of AGI development to determine the right time to invest heavily in superintelligence-related research and development.

Example

An educational institution can use the tool to assess how different AI futures could reshape the landscape of higher education. In a world where personalized AI tutors are prevalent, for example, the university may find it necessary to adjust its curriculum, invest in AI-driven educational tools, or shift toward more experiential learning models.

Scenario

A university using The Four Futures Planner to map out the risks and opportunities of AI-driven changes in higher education, ensuring it stays relevant in future markets.